Taking on water: Mariners sinking in standings with just weeks to go

It was never going to be easy, was it?

After appearing to build a buzzsaw of a roster at the trade deadline and commanding the brief hot streak that followed, the Mariners have lost 14 of their last 17 road games as the calendar turns to September.

Anxiety is building inside the long-tortured Mariners fanbase as the team has seen their buffer for the final AL wild card spot shrink to just a 1.5 games over the division rival Rangers with only 22 games remaining in the regular season.

Not again.

Other Mariners fans, much like myself, must have the similar thoughts occupying their conscious mind as crunch time approaches. We've been hurt so many times. They have the pieces this time. They aren't really going to blow it again, are they?

It isn't hyperbolic to call the latter half of August and beginning of September a disaster, even by Seattle baseball standards. They appear to be, at least to the naked eye, on a crash course for another late-season collapse—this time being dealt their best hand in maybe decades.

Here's a look at everything going wrong with the Mariners and whether they are doomed for another disappointing outcome this season.

A cautionary tale in primarily building your team at the trade deadline

On this newsletter, I have mentioned the Mariners' lack of offseason moves many a time. It still rings true, and the M's are still living the consequences of their inaction.

To preface, I was, for the most part, thrilled with the moves made at the trade deadline. Eugenio Suárez, overall, was an obvious upgrade at the third base position, even with the more questionable defense that was going to come with him. Josh Naylor was much the same, and could be a good candidate to re-sign this coming offseason. Even the addition of lefty reliever Caleb Ferguson to the bullpen appeared sound.

With the exception of Ferguson's performance since his acquisition (1-2, 5.25 ERA, -0.1 fWAR), the additions haven't looked terrible. Suárez and Naylor have both been up-and-down over the last month. Both have slumped, but that will happen over the course of the season.

Therein lies the issue in relying on the trade deadline to clean up a mess left by offseason complacency. When you make your best acquisitions with only two months left in the season, you set yourself up for failure.

This may be cliché, but it rings true: a baseball season is like a rollercoaster. Players will get hot. They will then cool off. Consistency is one of the most difficult attributes to possess, hence why it's so valued in the game. Players like J.P. Crawford and Kyle Seager have made careers out of having a relatively high floor, even if they never reach a high ceiling that so many fans crave. Not falling off a cliff for days and weeks at a time, in and of itself, brings value.

Not all players are like this. When you only have your best roster for the final two months of the regular season, you are relying on good results in a small sample. Nothing is guaranteed in small samples in baseball. Frankly, it's foolish to count on. Pair that with a team and fanbase that is starved of a real success for decades, and it borders on malpractice.

In the month since joining the Mariners roster, Suárez and Naylor haven't played especially poorly. Hell, they may be as responsible as anyone for the games the team has won in recent weeks. They have both failed to dazzle for weeks at a time, as well.

In the blink of an eye, though, half of the time they're guaranteed to be Mariners is already gone. With both players free agents at the end of the 2025 season, one of the two months of club control the Mariners traded for is already gone with the wind. All for a mediocre month of baseball for the team as a whole.

Real additions – not just ones released mid-season like Donovan Solano – are necessary in the winter months, even if you make significant moves in late July. The Mariners are once again learning that lesson right now. At least partially due to happenstance, they are slumping at the wrong time.

The problem is, they can't keep wasting seasons due to happenstance. Not after 48 seasons without a pennant.

Pitching was stabilizing—until it wasn't

I've also talked about this one plenty this season. Get everyone back from the injured list and your starting rotation will stabilize.

While the Mariners do have their best starting five back in order, and have for a couple of weeks now, there has been close to no sign of anything getting better. If anything, it seems like they've almost taken a step back.

There's no consistency in this facet at all right now. While peripherals may suggest regression—let's face it, we were never going to replicate 2024—the execution just isn't happening either.

Nobody in the rotation seems to have their best command right now. Logan Gilbert, the supposed ace, is getting guys out but struggling to do it in an efficient manner. Even Bryan Woo, the team's most reliable arm all year, had his streak of 25-straight six-inning starts snapped and has failed to make it through six in his last two starts.

Frankly, I don't have much more to say about this. Starting pitching is supposed to be the Mariners calling card, and it shouldn't be the case just in T-Mobile Park. The Mariners’ known weakness in the bullpen makes improvement among their starters even more imperative. They simply need to pitch better than they are, and it's hard to imagine the team making any noise in October unless they do.

The good news is that at least some of the road woes for Mariners starters may be a result of poor batted ball luck that could self-correct. Since the beginning of August, Mariners starters are putting up a dreadful 5.32 FIP on the road. However, xFIP (based on Statcast batted ball data) suggests this number should be all the way down at a much more reasonable 4.15.

We’ve been saying it all year. The Mariners’ pitching is better than this. One can only hope they are saving their best performance for down the stretch. Time is ticking.

The Mariners need better from their manager…if they don’t get that, they need to look elsewhere

In the times of need, you look to your manager. While Dan Wilson might not be the reason the Mariners are tumbling, it's fair to ask: what exactly is he adding to this team?

In the last couple of days, and throughout this season, I've made some of my thoughts on Wilson known. I was never sold on his hiring in the first place, and have yet to see much to make me any less skeptical.

Speaking to the Seattle Times' Ryan Divish on Wednesday, clubhouse leader and longest-tenured Mariner J.P. Crawford insinuated that the team doesn't respond well when they get down.

Wilson has been provided with a roster that is plenty talented to not only make the playoffs, but also win a weak division in 2025. Whether any of those things will happen is yet to be seen, but I struggle to see, at least on the surface, how he is aiding those efforts.

The comments from Crawford doesn't exactly inspire faith in Wilson's ability to motivate the team when they are down. With the team holding a playoff spot in the standings as we enter into the final month of the regular season, there really should be no trouble finding a reason to bring your A-game.

In the first two series of the current road trip, the Mariners have lost five of six games against the Guardians and Rays, with several of those losses feeling plenty winnable, especially against two teams that appear much inferior on paper. Three of the five losses were decided by only one run, which is a win-loss split that the Mariners have thrived in most of the season to this point (28-21) despite the recent run of play.

Strategically, Wilson leaves much to be desired as a manager. Throughout this season, many questionable decisions on lineups and bullpen usage are marked with his fingerprints all over.

Even in the last week, highly-touted catching prospect Harry Ford was called up from Triple-A Tacoma, ready to make his Major League debut whenever Wilson sees fit.

Wilson hasn't seen it fit yet. And while the decision to call up Ford seems at least partially motivated by the desire to have him available for the postseason since he had to be on the 40-man roster by September 1, it still leaves me scratching my head given the context.

I can't imagine Ford will be very productive come postseason if he hasn't had any consistent at-bats in a month. He’s going to have to get regular at-bats if you want him to stand a chance at the plate in the season’s most important games.

The most obvious time for him to have made his debut was on Wednesday. The Mariners were facing a righty in Adrian Houser, and incumbent backup catcher Mitch Garver, who was given the start, has been terrible against righties all year long (he has a 53 wRC+ against righties, compared to a 118 wRC+ against lefties). Wednesday’s starting pitcher George Kirby is known to prefer being caught by Garver, though we saw how that worked out in this case (Kirby gave up eight runs on 10 hits over two innings before being yanked).

If you don’t trust Ford to bat, he shouldn’t be on the roster right now. If you don’t trust him to catch as a third catcher on the roster, you need to be more willing to move him off that position. If we’re going to make statistically unsound decisions to cater to Kirby, he needs to be pitching better than he did Wednesday to earn that treatment.

Ford sat on the bench for an entire series without making a single appearance in a game. When asked about it, Wilson didn't have much of an answer.

Maybe the manager and the front office aren't on the same page—that would be a separate problem—but either way, it's becoming more than clear that Wilson isn't good for this. At the very least, he wasn't given the proper, soft landing he needed to learn on the job.

Scott Servais was fired for this. The Mariners need better from their manager, and Dan Wilson doesn't appear equipped to give them what they need. I would love to be proven wrong.

You're on your own, kid

So, you may be asking, are the Mariners doomed for another catastrophic collapse? Is the season over? What can they do?

When it comes down to it, it's really up to them. The trade deadline has passed. The pieces you have are pretty much the pieces you've got. Making a managerial change this late not only seems unlikely, but seems even more far-fetched given Wilson's status as a franchise icon. Even if you did make that call, it’d be hard to tell if it even made a difference with so few games remaining.

At this point, the players just need to perform better and the manager needs to manage better.

The good news? The roster is still plenty good enough on paper, and they still hold a small, albeit uncomfortable cushion for their wild card spot. I've spoken about the American League's mediocrity on many occasions, and it may be the thing that ultimately saves the 2025 Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners also have the 28th-hardest schedule remaining according to Tankathon, not that they have been playing well against any quality of team on the road. Almost all the contenders threatening the M’s face schedules that are significantly more difficult.

Combine all three of these factors (the small cushion in the standings, the lackluster AL, and the Mariners' remaining schedule) and it explains the ongoing faith shown by playoff odds, even as the Mariners continue their skid. FanGraphs currently estimates the Mariners' odds to retain at least a playoff spot at 75.4 percent.

As for the postseason, same thing goes. The Mariners are going to have to play better. They will have to be capable of winning on the road. The pitching will have to be reliable. The offense will have to be more consistent. These are all things this Mariners team is capable of doing. All that's left to be seen is if they will.

But ownership is not absolved from responsibility because they finally tried to invest in a competitive roster with only two months left and gave up next to no capital to do so. They will still get the result they ultimately want, regardless of what happens this month: butts in seats through September.

If this team—much like years past—can't give you a favorable outcome in return, I suggest the fans make a change themselves. Real pressure will need to be applied to force the sale of the team.

Eventually, Charlie has to stop trusting Lucy to not pull away the football.

This is Rolling Roof Rundown’s Mariners newsletter. You can follow James @rollingroofrundown.com on Bluesky and, if you haven’t already, subscribe to the newsletter for more news and commentary. Rolling Roof Rundown is now on Instagram as well.