Is it time to believe in the Mariners?

For the last couple of seasons, the Mariners have perpetually felt a piece or two away from graduating into the top-tier of pennant contenders.

Is it time to consider them graduated?

The new-look Seattle Mariners are red-hot, having won eight consecutive games and 10 of their last 11 since the trade deadline.

As it stands, the M’s are tied with the injury-plagued Houston Astros atop the AL West. The two teams are in a virtual dead heat for the division crown, with the Mariners slightly favored at 57.4 percent odds according to FanGraphs. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Standings are even more optimistic about the M's, giving them a 73.3 percent shot to win their first division title since the historic, 116-win season in 2001.

The early returns on the Mariners' new-and-improved lineup — with the additions of both Suárez and Josh Naylor in separate trades with the Arizona Diamondbacks — have been successful. These acquisitions, along with a trade for lefty reliever Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates, were able to be made without so much as dipping into any of the Mariners' top prospect capital, which features a league-leading nine top-100 prospects according to MLB Pipeline's latest update. For reference, the Reds and White Sox have the next most with six each.

An offense that already had been in the top tier of Major League Baseball for much of this season is now rounding into its peak form, with little to no holes top to bottom in their lineup. J.P. Crawford, who is already having a career year but had been struggling in recent weeks, was finally able to be relegated to a more appropriate role, setting the table near the bottom of the order most days.

Suárez's acquisition has given the Mariners a much-more-potent power threat at the third base position, with Ben Williamson being optioned to Triple-A after providing the team with a much-needed stopgap for most of the season. With Dylan Moore's ongoing struggles at the plate since May, Williamson could potentially look to add some defensive versatility to his repertoire and provide the team an alternative utility option.

Naylor, on the other hand, has thrived in Seattle over his first couple of weeks. Since joining the team, Naylor is slashing .286/.355/.554 with a whopping 11 stolen bases. His newfound ability to swipe bags since joining the M's has been a welcome surprise, given his sprint speed ranks in the third percentile of major leaguers this year according to Baseball Savant.

One of the biggest markers of the Mariners' offensive successes since the trade deadline, though, has been their ability to put up runs without being overly reliant on their biggest bat. Cal Raleigh has experienced his biggest slump of the season in recent days, marked by a platinum sombrero (0-for-5 with five strikeouts) in a game against the Chicago White Sox last Tuesday.

Raleigh broke out of that slump emphatically Friday, hitting a three-run home run in the eighth inning to give the Mariners their only runs of the night en route to a 3-2 victory. He would homer in the next two games as well.

The pitching staff has improved upon a lackluster start to the year, even with Bryce Miller (elbow inflammation) still at least one more rehab start away from returning to the rotation. George Kirby is finally reaching midseason form after a late start to the year due to shoulder soreness in spring training. Over his last five starts Kirby is 4-1 with a 2.32 ERA, capped off by seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 win over the Orioles Tuesday.

In fact, Mariners pitching as a whole appears to be peaking at an ideal time. Since July 15, they have posted a 3.32 ERA and 3.58 FIP, which rank third and second in baseball, respectively.

All this is to say, the Mariners finally possess the roster that we have all been waiting for. The Mariners' front office, led by president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, has assembled a team that can compete at the highest level with the best of baseball. They've done their job, filling the team’s dire needs at the trade deadline. Now the players seem to be stepping up in response — and the contributions are coming from all over the roster.

The vibes matter. Many teams in baseball wouldn't have brought back the power hitter they traded away in a salary dump a couple of years earlier, under the false assumption that the bat speed was going and he was about to drop off a cliff. Suárez, who stopped short of saying he didn’t want to be traded by Arizona during a career year with 36 home runs, seems to have come around to the reality of returning to Seattle, helping to rectify a decision that the team may have regretted.

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The table is set for the Mariners; their remaining schedule is one of the easier ones in baseball and a spot in the postseason is right there for the taking.

And while, yes, the last 11 games have been one of their easier stretches in the schedule, the M’s have made a habit of playing down to their opponents all year. They have a better record against teams above .500 (38-28) than they do against teams at or below (29-25). This disparity was much worse a week ago, which just goes to show, the Mariners are starting to beat the teams that they are, frankly, better than, and they hadn’t been doing that for most of the season to this point.

It certainly feels like the Mariners have the best roster in their division. While the Astros do expect to get some of their big names back in the coming weeks and have managed to stay in the hunt despite rolling out AAAA names like Cooper Hummel and Taylor Trammell for most of the last couple of months, they have watched a significant lead of seven games slowly evaporate since July 6. It's the third year in a row an AL West team has seen a large lead disappear, with both the Rangers and Mariners falling victim in 2023 and 2024.

The Astros, certainly, cannot be counted out; the Mariners are tied with them, after all, and we’ve seen what can happen if we get ahead of ourselves. Make no mistake, though: the Mariners are in the driver's seat and this is their division to lose in 2025, same as it always should've been.

I know believing in the Seattle Mariners may feel like a fool's errand for anyone who has tried to over the last two-and-a-half decades. When you're like me and can only consciously remember one home playoff game in your lifetime — a 1-0 loss in 18 innings to be eliminated from the playoffs, at that — it's difficult to blame anyone for not wanting to expend the emotional energy when you've been duped time and time again.

As someone who has religiously followed this team day in and day out over the course of my upbringing and young adult life, though, I can confidently say this team feels different. It is not hyperbole to say that this year's lineup may be their best since the early 2000s. Combine that with a pitching staff that seems to be stabilizing and was hyped as one of the best in the Majors over the past couple of seasons? Something special is developing in SoDo.

Forty-two games remain in the 2025 regular season and the Mariners are one of the favorites to win the American League pennant, something they have never done before in their dismal 48-year history. When will we be able to say that again?

I am as optimistic about the future of the Mariners as I could possibly be, but we are living in turbulent times. Pitching arm injuries are at an all-time high. A labor stoppage is potentially on the horizon when the MLB's collective bargaining agreement expires after the 2026 season. Tomorrow is not guaranteed. My friends, I implore you to get behind this team and get excited. Opportunities like this don't roll around in Seattle all the time.

Soak in this moment — before you know it, it may just be a memory.

This is Rolling Roof Rundown’s weekly Mariners newsletter. You can follow James @rollingroofrundown.com on Bluesky and, if you haven’t already, subscribe to the newsletter for more news and commentary. Rolling Roof Rundown is on Instagram as well.