The division title may come down to this.

Riding a hot streak and winning 11 of their last 12 games, the Mariners head to Houston to face the Astros in a series that could very well be decisive in the American League West.

Despite a serious stumble on their previous road trip, the Mariners returned home to Seattle to win every single game of their last homestand, going 7-0 in series against the Cardinals and Angels. With the help of an Etsy witch, the M's won 10 games in a row dating back to their final two games in Atlanta before finally dropping a game to the Royals in Kansas City.

Typical Kauffman Stadium shenanigans took place Wednesday as former Mariner Adam Frazier sparked a four-run eighth inning for the Royals with a two-run homer that may have been a routine flyout at almost any other spot in the ballpark. The Royals closed out the Mariners, 7-4, to hand them their first loss since their previous roadtrip. They couldn't keep the Mariners down, however, as the M's eked out a 2-0 victory Thursday to take the series and continue their momentum.

That brings us to where we are now. The Mariners and Astros are both tied atop the AL West standings, each with a record of 84-69 and only nine games to go in the regular season.

As if the stakes weren't high enough this weekend, the two teams are also tied in head-to-head record so far this season, so the series will decide the potential tiebreaker should they finish with the same record next Sunday. This weekend's series could swing the AL West lead up to four games (including tiebreaker) in either direction. Even a 2-1 series win for either team sets up what would essentially be a two-game cushion for the victor.

When you consider the Mariners' recent history of futility, I don't think it's hyperbole to call this the biggest regular season series they will play in nearly two decades. They haven't been this close to winning the division since they ran away with it in historic fashion with 116 wins back in 2001. While these games won't directly decide the division with still a week remaining, a two-game buffer with this little time left on the calendar would create a clear inside-path to the division title for the winner.

For the last several weeks, it appeared likely that two AL West teams will play each other in the wild card round. However, in recent days, those waters have muddied a bit. The Tigers have hit a rough patch while the Guardians have gotten hot. The Yankees and Red Sox have both lost some ground to the AL West leaders as well. All of a sudden, a first-round bye for the division champion or an east-coast playoff series for the second-place finisher both seem possible, which accentuates the importance of coming out on top. The Mariners and Astros may no longer be playing for home field in another three-game set against each other—it all just depends how it shakes out.

The Mariners need this series.

Could they still win the division without it? Sure, they might be able to. But this weekend provides as good an opportunity as ever to jump into the driver’s seat and never look back. A whole generation of Mariners fans (myself included) have yet to see the team make a statement as emphatic as they will have the opportunity to in the coming days.

The Astros have had a glorious past decade. The Mariners have a bright future. This feels like a moment frozen in time. Which team will make the most of it?

Know your opponent: Houston Astros

Both the Mariners and Astros head into this weekend playing pretty good ball. While the Astros haven't quite matched the M's over the past couple of weeks, they have won five of their last six and are coming off a three-game sweep of Texas that has put the Rangers' season on life support.

To optimize their rotation for their matchup with the Mariners, the Astros have announced Cy Young Award contender Hunter Brown as their starting pitcher to counter Bryan Woo on Friday night. Framber Valdez and Jason Alexander were pushed back to Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

The Astros will likely be without outfielder Yordan Alvarez, who suffered an ankle sprain when he slipped on home plate while scoring a run Monday. On the other hand, there is a chance that third baseman Isaac Paredes will make his return to the Astros' lineup this weekend. This is especially relevant with the games taking place in Houston—Paredes' righty power plays particularly well with Daikin Park's famously shallow Crawford Boxes in left field.

With the AL West race being one of the closest playoff races remaining in this year's regular season, ESPN has picked up Sunday's game to be televised nationally as part of Sunday Night Baseball. Especially if both teams were to take one apiece from the first two games, Sunday night's contest could be one of the single-most pivotal games in baseball this year; now, it’ll have a national audience.

The playoffs are here, albeit a week early. Batten down the hatches.

This is Rolling Roof Rundown’s Mariners newsletter. You can follow James @rollingroofrundown.com on Bluesky and, if you haven’t already, subscribe to the newsletter for more news and commentary. Rolling Roof Rundown is now on Instagram as well.