Throughout the first half of this season, my perspective has been different from usual. The wins get me less excited. The losses make me less upset.

Maybe it’s the distractions of today’s world. Maybe it’s my newfound commitment to producing content for you fine people, regardless of the game results, that has dulled my strong emotions that come with the season’s ebb and flow. Most of all, though, I believe it’s the nature of this year’s team that has led me to refrain from jumping to conclusions and “let it play out,” if you will.

The Mariners have been an extremely inconsistent team in 2025. There’s no way around it. There’s been moments where it feels like they could win the pennant, and others where you can’t help but figure they will find a way to miss the playoffs by a game or two again. If we’re honest, though, I don’t think that’s entirely shocking given some of the challenges they’ve faced. After all, their Pythagorean record matches their actual record of 51-45, which suggests they are exactly where their run differential suggests they should be.

Going into the 2025 season, all the expectations were placed on the Mariners’ pitching staff to carry the load. For large stretches of last season, the offense was almost entirely inept. On many nights, especially in the dog days of July and August, their hopes of winning were almost entirely staked in the idea that they would hit a home run or two, and that would be enough with a starting rotation that was having one of the best seasons in recent memory.

I think many people thought it would be foolish to assume the Mariners would replicate their 2024 starting pitching’s production and health in 2025. However, it hasn’t even really come close.

The Mariners are 16th in the Majors in team ERA — almost unbelievable given they were tied for first in 2024. On the other hand, their offense is fourth in wRC+, which is a sharp turnaround. They have one less win than they had last year at the same time; in essence, they’ve taken a different route to the same place. The question now becomes: which of this year’s developments is more likely to be more ‘real?’

I think the answer is clear. This year’s offense may regress — they are getting the best season at the plate from a catcher ever — but the lineup has simply been deeper this year. Jorge Polanco was playing hurt much of last year, but has bounced back. While still not living up to his contract, Mitch Garver is producing fine for the backup-catcher role to which he has been relegated. And of course, Randy Arozarena has lived up to his expectations since being acquired at the trade deadline last year.

Prospects Cole Young and Ben Williamson have both been solid defensively while not being black holes in the lineup — which alone is an improvement from the bottom of the lineup last year. Even Dominic Canzone, who had previously been unable to find consistent success in past stints at the big league level, has hit well since being recalled and has seen serious improvement in his peripherals.

The offense is simply better than it was last year. Their wRC+ may not be top five in MLB come the end of the regular season, but I do feel pretty confident it’ll be a significant improvement on last year. It’d be difficult for it to not be at this stage.

I also think the pitching is bound to be better in the second half. The track record is just too good in that department to not believe that. They’ve invested a great deal of energy into keeping their arms healthy after several starters missed significant time in the first half.

On paper, there is plenty of room for upside in the second half. In practice, I think the team has already had their backs against the wall at a number of points this year; every single time, they have answered the bell.

This last week is the perfect example. The Mariners were coming off of being swept in brutal fashion by the Yankees in the Bronx. They had fallen out of a playoff spot, something that seemed unfathomable given the state of the American League (but seriously, have you seen how mediocre it is??). With tons of pressure mounting to win in the 10th year of this front office regime, trade deadline approaching, what do the Mariners do?

They marched into Detroit on no rest — literally, at one point the fire alarm at their hotel went off a 4:30 am Sunday morning, according to Dawn Klemish of MLB.com — and swept aside the team with the American League’s best record while defeating two of this season’s best starters in the process. Julio Rodríguez, whose lukewarm offensive production this season has drawn the ire of many Mariners fans, went 6-for-12 with three homers after announcing he would be foregoing All-Star Game festivities.

It’s just what they do. They’re inconsistent, but they rise to the occasion when they need to. They really never seem to panic, even in their cold stretches. If they hit their floor, I can still expect them to dig out of the hole. Simply put, I have more trust in this year’s team.

Some may say that the All-Star Break came at a bad time, but the rest was badly needed. The Mariners had exactly one off-day between June 20 and the All-Star Break beginning on July 14. They also won’t get another off-day out of the break until August 4. The fact is, much was made about the Mariners needing to finish strong heading into the Break — they did exactly that, albeit in an unconventional manner.

Over the past several days, Mariners fans were treated to more of their players selected to the Midsummer Classic than there has been since 2003. They watched Cal Raleigh, now a serious MVP candidate, become both the first catcher and first switch-hitter to win the Home Run Derby — all on a national stage.

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I cannot imagine a better time for the organization to make their move. They have less holes than ever and can shore up their biggest weaknesses without tearing down their farm system, which holds more top 100 prospects than any other team in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline.

You just need to get into the playoffs, especially considering some of your pitching issues have been at the bottom of your rotation. This would be almost a non-factor come postseason, since you naturally lean on your very best starters come that time of year.

Get middle relief help. Bring back Eugenio Suárez. Make this team the one to beat in the American League. It’s completely attainable without staking the team’s entire future. Hell, we just had the MLB Draft this last week as well. The Mariners added maybe the draft’s best arm to a pitching lab that has been the envy of the league for a number of years, and selected a catcher in the second round that could make MLB-ready Harry Ford more expendable.

This team has the star power. The fans have been ready. The sky is the limit for the 2025 Mariners in the second half. It’s time to bring the Mojo back to SoDo.

Know your opponent: Houston Astros

Ah, yes. We meet again.

The Mariners welcome the division rival Astros to T-Mobile Park this weekend for a three-game set to kick off the second half of the season. This year, the M’s are 3-4 against the ‘Stros. They took two of the three games in Seattle back in April, however, dropped three of the four games down in Houston back in late May.

With Bryan Woo pitching in the All-Star Game on Tuesday — and both Logan Gilbert and George Kirby missing some time in the first half — it appears the Mariners are electing to go the ‘safe’ route for the first two games of the series, scheduling Luis Castillo and Logan Evans to start and giving Kirby and Gilbert an couple of extra days off.

Regardless, the Mariners will look to set the tone for the second half after both teams held not-insignificant leads atop the division at different points of the first half. The Astros couldn’t stop winning in June with a 19-7 record. They’ve cooled off in recent days, though, with a number of key pieces missing time on the injured list. Instead of big names like Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers, you’re going to see a lot of Taylor Trammell, Cooper Hummel and Brice Matthews.

The Astros will roll out Lance McCullers on Saturday. The Mariners historically struggle against McCullers — he boasts a 10-3 record with a 2.85 ERA in 19 appearances against the M’s in his career. Houston will follow up with Cy Young Award-contender Hunter Brown on Sunday afternoon, a change from originally scheduling Framber Valdez.

The Mariners are yet to name a starter for Sunday afternoon’s game. We will have to wait and see what direction they go and whether it will involve any roster moves.

This is Rolling Roof Rundown’s twice-weekly Mariners newsletter. You can follow James @rollingroofrundown.com on Bluesky and, if you haven’t already, subscribe to the newsletter for more news and commentary. Rolling Roof Rundown is now on Instagram and Threads as well.